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Health & Fitness

Spring Training Special: 2013 Season Predictions/Preview

Don't miss my predictions for the season. I predict every division and post previews on every team.

This is quite possibly my favorite email to write of the season.  In it, I include my predictions for each division and give my reasoning.  Sometimes, I predict a division to fall in the exact same order as last year.  Other times, a division can be completely mixed up.  Here are my predictions.

AL East

 1. Boston Red Sox

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2. Toronto Blue Jays (WC)

3. New York Yankees

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4. Tampa Bay Rays

5. Baltimore Orioles

This was the toughest division to rank.  Every team has a chance to win the division, but I don't see any of them clearly having an advantage.  I think of all five teams as second-place caliber.  The Blue Jays are the favorite, bus as we saw last year, one does not simply throw together a team and expect wins (see Marlins in 2012).  This may seem surprising, but I believe that if the Red Sox can stay healthy and their pitching regains its consistency, they will be a force to be reckoned with in 2013.  Mark Melancon, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett, Cody Ross, and Marco Scutaro are gone.  In their places stand Joel Hanrahan, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, and Stephen Drew, respectively.  With the overhaul of the roster, the team chemistry seems to be much more stable.  Of course, injuries are always something to be aware of.  Players such as David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Will Middlebrooks, Stephen Drew, Clay Buchholz, and Andrew Bailey have had injury issues in the past few seasons.  However, Boston has depth with players such as Daniel Nava and Mike Carp waiting in the outfield and Mauro Gomez, Lyle Overbay, Jose Iglesias, and Pedro Ciriaco backing up the infield.  The pitching is another problem.  Jon Lester, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Buchholz underperformed last season and players such as Bailey and Melancon missed significant time to injury.  The pitching cleans up its act and the offense stays healthy, I can't see the Red Sox missing the top of the division.  The Blue Jays are a team that I expect to win the Wild Card.  Yes, they added players such as R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and Melky Cabrera over the offseason, but as I said earlier, one does not simply throw a team together and expect success.  We saw that with the Marlins adding Reyes, Buehrle, Heath Bell, and Carlos Zambrano then struggling to maintain even a winning record.  Now, the Blue Jays are stacked, so you can't count them out, which is why I'm ranking them second.  The stacked outfield includes Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, Melky Cabrera, Rajai Davis, and Emilion Bonifacio.  The rotation starts with four top-end starters.  Toronto could very well prove me wrong and take the division.  The reason I rank the Yankees so low is the fact that Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, and Michael Pineda are all injured, while Russell Martin, Rafael Soriano, and Nick Swisher left the team for Pittsburgh, Washington, and Cleveland, respectively.  The catching situation is a mess with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, and Austin Romine, players I would barely consider backups, splitting time.  Now, they still have Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis, Ichiro, C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, and numerous other stars healthy, so they can't be counted out.  The Rays don't look good on paper, with not much star power outside Evan Longoria, David Price, and Jeremy Hellickson, but that's the story every year, and every year, they surprise everyone.  You can't count them out, because when a player plays under Joe Maddon, something happens.  Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, and Kelly Johnson are names that may go unnoticed on the offense, and Matt Moore, Fernando Rodney, and Jake McGee are solid contributors on the mound.  Sadly for some Orioles fans here in the Beltway region, I see a regression from the team.  Of course, I see them playing .500 ball or better, but this is a tough division.  The Red Sox and Blue Jays improved and the Rays and Yankees are, well, the Rays and Yankees.  Especially after losing Mark Reynolds and Joe Saunders to the Indians and Mariners, respectively, and not bringing in any new talent whatsoever outside of Jair Jurrjens and Trayvon Robinson, I see them getting buried in this tough division with a lack of depth.  That's not to say they couldn't remain entirely healthy and make another run like in 2012, but they have the lowest chances out of anyone in the division.

AL Central

1. Tigers

2. Royals

3. Indians

4. White Sox

5. Twins

This division looks to be improving dramatically in 2013.  The Tigers, of course, were last year's American League Champions and don't look to relinquish their spot atop the AL Central, especially with the return of Victor Martinez and the addition of Torii Hunter.  The offense is great, the pitching is great, and the Tigers are just a great all around team.  The only question mark is at the back of the bullpen, where 23 year old rookie Bruce Rondon, who has never pitched in the major leagues, will take over the closer's role from the departed Jose Valverde.  Expect Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Martinez, Hunter, and Austin Jackson to lead Detroit back to the top.  To me, the Royals seem like candidates for next year's biggest over-performer.  Like the Nationals at the beginning of 2012, they are coming off a lackluster season, but top prospects and youngsters like Kelvin Herrera, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, Nate Adcock, and Aaron Crow are ready to come together as a unit and dominate.  Additions like James Shields, Ervin Santana and Wade Davis will solidify the extremely young pitching staff with some experience.  Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are again ready to lead the offense.  I have the utmost confidence that the Royals are poised for a breakout season.  The Indians are another team that looks to break out.  They added Michael Bourn, Mark Reynolds, Nick Swisher, Brett Myers, and Drew Stubbs over the offseason, and young players like Carlos Santana, Vinnie Pestano, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Jason Kipnis look to keep improving.  However, I think they are still a year away from the breakout year the Royals are poised to have.  Their bullpen is very young, and needs some more experience.  The White Sox are a team that is stuck between rebuilding and contending.  Because of this, I expect them to finish fourth.  A.J. Pierzynski, a source of leadership in the clubhouse, is gone.  Paul Konerko, who was already a leader, and guys like Alex Rios, Matt Thornton, Adam Dunn, and Jake Peavy will have to step up as leaders.  Their team, around the diamond, looks like a mix of young and old.  Guys like Dunn, Konerko, and Jeff Keppinger fall under the "old" category. Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers, and Gordon Beckham are young.  The bullpen, however, is extremely young.  Apart from Thornton, Jesse Crain, and Matt Lindstrom, all of the relievers have very recently been rookies.  Their entire pitching staff, in fact, is young, so expect them to rise back to the top soon–just not yet.  Lastly, I see the Twins finishing at the bottom.  Aside from team leaders Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and Joe Mauer, there is really no talent to speak of.  Two-thirds of their outfield: Ben Revere and Denard Span, were sent off in trades, and most of their starting players are either over the hill (Jamey Carroll) or simply backup-caliber (Darin Mastroianni, Chris Parmelee, Pedro Florimon).  Their ace pitcher, Scott Diamond, is coming off a good, but not great season, having gone 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA in a breakout performance.  Glen Perkins, a Minnesota native and lifelong Twin, is the only other good and established pitcher to mention, coming back to back seasons with sub 2.60 ERA's in the bullpen.

AL West

1. Angels

2. Rangers (WC)

3. Mariners

4. A's

5. Astros

Last year, when the Angels added Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, I did not predict they would win the AL West like many did.  Of course, they didn't win.  This year, however, with the additions of Josh Hamilton, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas, Ryan Madson, Sean Burnett, and Joe Blanton, I think they can pull off winning the AL West, which has turned into one of the toughest divisions in baseball.  Their offense is led by the big three of Hamilton, Mike Trout, and Pujols, with other significant bats in Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick.  Their pitching is as good as it's ever been with Jered Weaver, Wilson, Madson, Burnett, Ernesto Frieri, and Scott Downs.  Especially now that the Rangers lost Josh Hamilton, the Angels have the edge and may be one of the best teams in baseball.  The Rangers, on the other hand, have lost significant players.  Josh Hamilton is gone across the division, Mike Napoli and Ryan Dempster left for Boston, and Mike Adams and Michael Young are with the Phillies.  All they have to replace those players in terms of new faces are A.J. Pierzynski, Joakim Soria, and Josh Lindblom.  However, don't count them out.  Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler provide excellent offensive leadership and young players like Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, and Leonys Martin are ready to break through.  I see the Mariners having a breakout season like the Royals and Indians.  However, in a very tough division, it will be difficult for them to oust the Angels and Rangers.  I do think, however, that they can leapfrog the A's.  Added offensive pieces like Kendrys Morales, Jason Bay, Michael Morse, Kelly Shoppach, and Raul Ibanez should help an offense that has really struggled to score runs.  Felix Hernandez, of course, won't need the runs, but they will help other strong pitchers like Hisashi Iwakuma, who will now be fully acclimated to the majors, and Joe Saunders, who was signed to replace Jason Vargas.  The young bullpen will be another year more experienced.  The trio of top Mariners prospects of Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton could all make their major league debuts this year.  Hopes are high in Seattle.  The A's surprised last year, but I don't see them doing the same again this year.  I see Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes continuing their production, but Brandon Moss, who added 21 home runs and a .291 average, seems to have had a fluke season and may not be able to keep up the production.  The rotation is deep but not especially talented, and the bullpen is inconsistent.  The offense is deep, so there is a strong point.  One thing I am sure about is that the Astros will finish dead last.  When your best player is 5'5" and 22 years old, there is a problem.  While Jose Altuve is very good, there is very little behind him.  Carlos Pena, who looks to be the franchise's first DH, and Justin Maxwell will be the other top hitters.  Maxwell is a career .217 hitter, while Pena weighs in at .234.  Ace pitcher Lucas Harrell has had only one season in his career of more than 25 innings and is yet to pitch in his 50th game.  #2 starter Bud Norris has never won double digit games in a season and holds a 4.42 career ERA.  Closer Jose Veras has all of five career saves and the best ERA he has ever posted is 3.59, way back in 2008.  The Astros' strength is in their farm system, which holds top prospects like Carlos Correa, Delino DeShields (who stole 101 bases last year in the minors), Brad Peacock, Jonathan Singleton, George Springer, Marc Krauss, and Jarred Cosart.  However, those guys won't be in the majors in 2013, with the exception of possibilities in Peacock, Cosart, and Singleton.

NL East

1. Nationals

2. Braves (WC)

3. Phillies

4. Mets

5. Marlins

How could I not rank the Nationals number one.  While calling them the best team in baseball (which I do) may be a tiny bit biased, saying they will win the NL East is not.  This team is stacked.  The rotation is five deep with stars, including two bona-fide aces in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez.  The defense, especially with Denard Span replacing Michael Morse, is impenetrable.  The bullpen contains three closers in Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard.  Adam LaRoche, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond lead the offense.  Kurt Suzuki and Wilson Ramos will tandem behind the plate.  There are no holes on this team.  With the experience they gained in a 98 win 2012, the Nationals look unbeatable.  The Braves made improvements, but only enough to keep pace with the Nationals.  B.J. Upton replaces Michael Bourn in center, Chris Johnson replaces Chipper Jones at third, and Justin Upton replaces Martin Prado in the outfield.  Now with the Upton brothers to go along with Jason Heyward, the Braves have the best outfield in baseball.  One intriguing infielder is shortstop Andrelton Simmons, a 23 year old Curacao native who hit .289 in a 49 game debut last year.  The bullpen is fantastic with the best closer in baseball, Craig Kimbrel, and top notch lefties Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters.  The rotation, however, is somewhat less spectacular than it's been in recent years.  Tim Hudson leads a staff that includes Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, and Paul Maholm, and Brandon Beachy will be back midseason.  Though the Phillies are aging and declining (they certainly didn't help the age problem by trading for Michael Young (age 36) and signing Mike Adams (34)), you can't count them out.  Star players Ryan Howard (33), Carlos Ruiz (34), Roy Halladay (35), Cliff Lee (34), Jimmy Rollins (34), and Chase Utley (34) are all on the decline, but they all still have some in the tank.  Younger players like Cole Hamels, Domonic Brown, Jonathan Papelbon, and Antonio Bastardo will need to step up in the likely case that one of the older players gets injured.  If Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return to the form that allowed the Phillies to win the 2008 World Series, this Philadelphia team may surprise some people.  The Mets are headed in the right direction, but they're not there yet.  Young players like Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Lucas Duda, Jon Niese, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are beginning to come into their own.  Established leaders like David Wright, Johan Santana, and Bobby Parnell are back to drive the team.  Though they have holes, like the outfield, they have a chance to prove something this year.  In 2014, I think they can overtake the Phillies in the standings.  After dealing Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, and Heath Bell over the offseason as well as Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate in season and losing Carlos Lee to free agency, the Marlinsare left with a significantly different team.  The only holdovers from their 2011 team, the last one called the Florida Marlins, are Steve Cishek, Chris Coghlan, Mike Dunn, Logan Morrison, Ricky Nolasco, Bryan Petersen, Alex Sanabia, Giancarlo Stanton, and Ryan Webb.  Nine players may seem like a lot, but know that 56 players appeared in at least one game in 2011, and just nine are left.  Nine.  That means five sixths of the team from just two years ago are gone.  Players like Stanton, Nolasco, Justin Ruggiano, Morrison, and Juan Pierre will try and lead in their place, but I don't see the Marlins going anywhere this year.  The only strong points for the Marlins are in their young bullpen, headed by Cishek, Webb, and Dunn, and in right field, where Giancarlo Stanton looms.

NL Central

1. Reds

2. Cardinals

3. Brewers

4. Pirates

5. Cubs

I expect the NL Central to be mostly unchanged.  The Reds are a strong all around team with an MVP candidate in Joey Votto, and a Cy Young candidate in Johnny Cueto.  Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips will also lead the offense while Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and possibly Aroldis Chapman will lead the rotation.  Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, and Jose Arredondo top one of the strongest bullpens in baseball (which may include Aroldis Chapman).  A Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco combination behind the plate should prove more than stable, and the left side of the infield yields a pair of sophomore up and comers in Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart.  If everyone stays healthy, there should be no stopping what was last year's second best team (97-65).  The Cardinals' experience is always a plus.  Guys like Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright have plenty of big game experience.  The middle of the order is stacked with Beltran, Molina, Holliday, Allen Craig, and David Freese, and the team has plenty of depth.  Jason Motte heads a strong bullpen with no real weaknesses, especially with the addition of lefty Randy Choate.  While the Reds are built on pure talent, the Cards have experience, chemistry, and one of the best fan bases in baseball.  I can liken the Brewers to the Reds, built on talent.  They're a bit older, but you can't doubt them.  Perennial MVP candidate Ryan Braun obviously leads the club, and is backed up on offense by Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart (who will miss the beginning of the season), Nori Aoki, and Rickie Weeks.  Yovani Gallardo and newly signed Kyle Lohse will lead a rotation that is much better than just a few years ago, while John Axford looks to rebound from a rough 2012 and regain his 2010-2011 form.  Young players like Jean Segura and Martin Maldonado look to build off their rookie seasons.  Though the Brewers aren't as "complete" as the Reds and Cardinals, they could be a good sleeper to challenge for the Central.  The Pirates came oh-so-close to breaking that twenty year streak of losing seasons in 2012, going 79-83, but may look to snap it this year.  Andrew McCutchen returns as strong as ever, and Pedro Alvarez, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, and newcomer Russell Martin will help him lead the offense.  The sky is the limit for rookie Starling Marte, who will play his first full season.  Gaby Sanchez, Josh Harrison, and John McDonald provide for great depth in the infield behind Alvarez, Clint Barmes, Walker, and Jones.  The pitching is a little behind the hitting, and that is what I think will lead to difficulty for the Pirates.  A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, who combined to go 28-23 with a 3.64 ERA in 2012, top the rotation, but behind them, James McDonald (12-8, 4.21), Jonathan Sanchez (1-9, 8.07), and Jeff Locke (1-3, 5.50) will have to step up if the Pirates want to go anywhere.  Closer Jason Grilli had a 2.91 ERA last year and has pitched in 330 major league games, but has very little experience closing  Set-up man Mark Melancon was a closer in 2011 for the Astros, but struggled with injuries in 2012.  Other relievers, like Tony Watson and Jared Hughes, had strong 2012 seasons, but have little major league experience.  Now with the Astros gone, the Cubs look like they will take over last place.  Anthony Rizzo, Alfonso Soriano, and Starlin Castro are the only bats in the lineup of any significance, and the ace pitcher is Jeff Samardzija, who was 9-13 last year.  Closer Carlos Marmol routinely approaches a walk per inning, sitting with 345 career walks in 514.2 innings, a number that was 45 in 55.1 last year.  One bright spot is set-up man Kyuji Fujikawa, a 32 year old Japanese import who's first name translates to "Baseball Kid".  He holds a 1.77 career ERA in Japan, and was 8-1 with a 0.67 ERA as a reliever in 2008 for the Hanshin Tigers.  

NL West

1. Giants

2. Dodgers (WC)

3. Padres

4. Diamondbacks

5. Rockies

I am a believer that chemistry goes a long way.  The Giants have that.  The team has won two of the past three World Series, perhaps without the best teams on paper.  Of course, big bats like Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Pablo Sandoval will pivotal in reclaiming their seat at the top of the division.  Other fan favorites, like Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, will be instrumental in their success.  The rotation, like always, is stacked with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, and Barry Zito.  If Lincecum can return to his 2008-2011 form, where he was 62-36 with a 2.81 ERA and back-to-back Cy Young Awards in '08 and '09, then the Giants may have the best rotation in baseball.  One area for concern is the bullpen, which is a little thin.  Competent closer Sergio Romo, complete with a 2.20 career ERA, leads the group, and Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez are great relievers, but behind those guys, only Jose Mijares and George Kontos remain.  One thing the Dodgers are missing is chemistry.  They are a team thrown together with money.  Now, they're a very good team thrown together with money, but I don't see much of that team spark.  After the deadline last season, they went just 30-27, a .526 winning percentage, and ended up eight games behind the Giants and two behind the Cardinals.  This year, on top of last year's additions of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, they've added Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Greinke, and J.P. Howell.  Those additions, I think, push them over the Cardinals for the Wild Card.  Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Ramirez (who will open the season on the DL), lead a solid offensive core, though the offense does have weak spots.  The infield, especially without Hanley, is weak, with Jerry Hairston, Luis Cruz, Mark Ellis, and Gonzalez around the horn.  Pitching, however, is fantastic.  The rotation starts off with Clayton Kershaw, arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  Behind him is Greinke, followed by Ryu, Beckett, and Chad Billingsley.   Los Angeles has three solid starters who can fill in in case of injury in Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, and Chris Capuano.  Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, and Ronald Belisario lead a strong bullpen.  I think the Padres will be a surprise this year.  They played well after the All Star Break, going 42-32 (.568 WPCT) from July 14th on and will just get better now that everyone is a year older.  The team moved the fences in over the offseason, so it won't be a hitter's hell.  Carlos Quentin, Chris Denorfia, Chase Headley (once he get's healthy), and Cameron Maybin will provide offense, and Huston Street leads a strong bullpen.  The rotation has no standout names, but it includes competent names in Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, and Jason Marquis.  I like the team's chances of finishing at .500 or better.  The Diamondbacks gave up Justin Upton and Chris Johnson over the offseason, which may cause a drop in the standings.  Even without those bats, Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kubel, Cody Ross, Miguel Montero, and Aaron Hill are all solid hitters.  The rotation is strong, with Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley at the top.  Just by hunch, I see them running into injury trouble.  Eric Chavez, Willie Bloomquist, Wil Nieves, Eric Hinske, and Heath Bell are all 35 or older.  They also made a bad trade in giving up Trevor Bauer and solid relievers for Didi Gregorius and other minor leaguers.  They're a good team, but I think they need luck to get very far.  Lastly, the Rockies are going to need to improve on last season.  Granted, top players like Troy Tulowitzki (47 games), Todd Helton (69 games), Michael Cuddyer (101 games), and Jorge De La Rosa (3 starts) were limited to low numbers of games due to injury, but the West is a strong division.  The team is an awkward mix of old and young, with old guys like Helton (39), Cuddyer (34), Jon Garland (33), Yorvit Torrealba (34), and Rafael Betancourt (37), mixed in with young guys like Wilin Rosario (24), Jordan Pacheco (27), Josh Rutledge (23), Jhoulys Chacin (25), Rex Brothers (25), and Juan Nicasio (26).  They haven't quite decided if they are going for it or rebuilding, and that is a dangerous middle ground that the White Sox, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Marlins have fallen into.

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Teams followed in this update: Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers

If your team is not included, please leave a comment.

HR: home runs.  RBI: runs batted in.  AVG: batting average.  SB: stolen bases.  ERA: earned run average. WHIP: walks/hits per innings pitched.  K's: strikeouts. WPCT: winning percentage

Zack Silverman

 

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