Webb Announcement Opens Senate Race

Just over four years into his first term, U.S. Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) has announced he will not seek re-election in 2012, in what will likely spark a spirited campaign in the GOP to field a nominee to replace him.

Former U.S. Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), who lost the seat to Webb in 2006, will seek the Republican nomination. In a statement on his website, Allen says, "My campaign will continue to focus on achievable reforms that will help reinvigorate our economy, end reckless, runaway spending, and unleash our plentiful energy resources."

Jamie Radtke, a political consultant from Richmond, will run for the office as a Tea Party candidate.

"She is the personification of the non-government official running for political office. Her message is constitutional and consistent," said Ron Wilcox, an organizer within the Northern Virginia Tea Party. "She is one of the toughest political characters out there...A really good word to describe to Jamie Radtke as an opponent is 'formidable.'"

No Democratic candidate has yet stepped forward to announce a bid for the seat, though pundits are speculating the party is urging former Gov. Tim Kaine to declare his candidacy. Kaine has served as the chairman of the National Democratic Committee since 2009.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said if the 2010 mid-term elections taught political analysts anything, it was that the Tea Party candidates have to be seriously considered.

"The Tea Party candidates won — all over the place. You cannot automatically dismiss a Tea Party candidate," he said.

But Sabato thinks the equation will be a simple one: If Obama carries Virginia in 2012, the yet-to-be-named Democratic candidate will win the Senate seat. If he doesn't, the Republican candidate will claim the seat.

"If the election were held today, Obama would not win Virginia again, but Obama’s moving back up again, along with the economy," Sabato said. "On our Crystal Ball website we’ve called it a toss-up and we’re maintaining it as a toss-up. ... It's way too soon."

Toni Travis, a political science professor at George Mason University, said the Democrats will have to put up a strong candidate if they expect to mount a successful campaign against Allen.

"[Allen is] a good fundraiser. He’ll have quite a war chest," Travis said. "There are others that might throw their hat in, but [former Gov. Tim] Kaine would be the best because he has been governor and that means he’s run across the whole state — statewide name recognition."